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Non Trump Supporters

Discussion in 'Anything and Everything not Free Rider' started by SavageCobra, Feb 5, 2019.

?

Do you think Trump wears a wig?

Poll closed Feb 19, 2019.
  1. Yes

    8 vote(s)
    29.6%
  2. No

    13 vote(s)
    48.1%
  3. Maybe

    6 vote(s)
    22.2%
  1. FridayIX

    FridayIX Active Member

    Tbh, not sure you know exactly what global warming is.
     
  2. Crypt

    Crypt Well-Known Member Elite Author Official Author

    Awarded Medals
    Nothing I wasn’t being serious with that post. My bad tbh I always forget how many new people are here that have no idea how much of a staunch Trump supporter I am and they don’t detect my trolling like the old members do
     
    Logeton and FridayIX like this.
  3. FridayIX

    FridayIX Active Member

    Oh yeah heh heh. Try pasting the sarcastic parts in italics then. Works every time I do it.
     
  4. Eryp

    Eryp foraminifera Staff Member Administrator Forum Moderator VIP Team Truck Official Author

    Awarded Medals
    this video is bad. i strongly encourage you to learn about climate change from a source not funded by people who made their money by fracking
     
    demimondance likes this.
  5. FridayIX

    FridayIX Active Member

    Wow, no rebuttal of any specific information in the video? That's not much of an argument bud! Get some real sources! :D:D:D
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2019
  6. Eryp

    Eryp foraminifera Staff Member Administrator Forum Moderator VIP Team Truck Official Author

    Awarded Medals
    you should get better sources for your standpoint as well, friend! :thumbsup:

    not entirely sure what the graph at 0:20 is trying to say, but it seems to be the change in temperature from 1997 to 2016? it's not specific enough to draw a concrete conclusion from and there's no source attached, so I'm not going to draw any conclusion from it.
    here's a graph depicting average global temperature anomaly from Berkeley Earth, a independent non-profit dedicated to studies of land temperatures:
    TimeSeries2017.png
    and if that wasn't clear enough for you, here's a global map for 2017 of temperature anomalies relative to 1951-1980 averages:
    AnnualMap2017-1024x642.png
    notice how the most drastic temperature changes are in the arctic? that means that the extent to which the ice there forms yearly is decreasing! this creates a feedback loop that accelerates warming. ice in general is more reflective of sunlight than seawater because it's white while seawater is dark. the more ice there is, the more sunlight is reflected back into space (this is the effect of the earth's albedo: the more reflective a body is, the less light energy/heat it absorbs or keeps in its atmosphere). but the less ice there is, the less sunlight is reflected back into space and kept in the atmosphere. this traps more heat on earth, accelerating warming and melting more ice, which keeps more heat on the planet, and so on. and here's the national snow and ice data center on the decreasing extent of arctic sea ice.
    there's other feedback loops in the arctic that explain why it's so warm relative to the rest of the earth and that i don't feel like explaining because i still have 4.5 minutes left of this cruddy video to watch and write about, but this article does a nice job of summing some of them up (like the melting of permafrost releasing CO2).
    so why should we be concerned about the increasing temperatures in the arctic? well on top of decreasing the planetary albedo in an effect already explained, the melting Greenland Ice Sheet will raise sea levels globally about 20 feet, ocean currents could change (which would mess up the gulf stream, which is a massive problem on its own), and winter weather patterns will change. I got all this from here, but you can literally just look up "effects of arctic sea ice melting" and get information from so many other sources.
    onto the next part of the video!
    0:34 technicality that I take issue with is that global warming and climate change are different things. global warming refers to the warming of the earth due to human emissions. climate change refers to the change in the earth's climate due to global warming. in most contexts they can be used interchangeably, but it's important to note this. here's nasa writing about this distinction.
    0:50 using 3 groups to define all sides of the climate change issue is a gross simplification of the issue. you've got climate refugees, climate scientists, climate deniers, governments, NGOs, etc., each of which have a gazillion subdivisions within them and different interactions between them, but for the purpose of his point sure, I'll give him this.
    1:00 his point for this section of the video is that the only scientists that think climate change is real sit on the IPCC. his tactic here is to again undermine the proof of climate change by mentioning only one scientific group. other groups exist. this is just a weak point.
    1:12 while human CO2 emissions are the main cause of global warming, there are other things that contribute. things like coolants in refrigerators indirectly contribute by wrecking the ozone layer, methane emissions from cattle accelerate warming, and deforestation globally contributes in two ways in that forests naturally serve as a carbon sink (something that takes in more carbon/CO2 than it emits), and getting rid of them inhibits this and keeps more CO2 in the environment AND the methods of deforestation emit CO2 in large amounts as well. here's a map from the WWF showing the extent of global deforestation:
    global_deforestation_map_1.png
    but again, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say maybe he's just using a vague term to help people understand his point.
    1:23 "this might eventually dangerously heat the planet" see the two graphs above for why this is wrong. the planet is already heating up to a dangerous extent. here's why hurricanes have been getting stronger in the past few years and why they will get more rainy, why europe's recent deadly heat waves happened and why they will become more frequent, and why 50-year floods will become more frequent as a result of climate change. all these effects will grow stronger and more frequent as the planet heats more. things are already pretty dangerous if you were to ask me, but maybe his definition is different and that's the point he's trying to make. moving on.
    1:31 he's not specifying any particular group here like he did for his "Group 1" moniker to make them seem more prevalent than they actually are.
    1:41 wonderful! he's finally given his reason as to why he says the climate is changing. I'll dissect each of these:
    the sun: yes, the sun can change the earth's climate. the issues with this argument though are that these changes are cyclic, occur on either geologic or very short timescales, and change earth's climate relatively little over the timescale in question. so no, this is not the cause of the climate warming.
    the clouds: again, can change earth's climate, both warming and cooling. but the effect of climate on the clouds is much more noticeable than clouds on climate. as the climate changes due to manmade causes, clouds will continue to do their net-neutral sorta thing.
    the oceans: yes oceans do change the climate (see: el niño/la niña). already gave you one reason why the oceans cause warming with the albedo feedback loop, but ocean currents will change with melting ice which will effect weather patterns. so that's cool! also, the oceans are turning to acid as a result of climate change. similar to clouds in that they effect earth's climate, but as the planet warms their effects will change with it.
    earth's orbital patterns: I'm assuming he's referring to milankovitch cycles. yes, earth's orbit does change. yes, this changes the global climate by effecting the amount of sunlight is received. but these changes occur over a period of thousands of years. the period of climate change we're currently looking at is about 150 years. it's not significant.
    many other reasons: purposefully vague point, but yes, true.
    1:50 "none of these is fully understood, and there is no evidence that CO2 emissions are the dominant factor" where is his evidence that none of these are fully understood? yes, he's right in that we know the earth's climate is a super complex system, and as a result of that it's hard to judge the effects the individual effects of each of these on earth's climate (sidenote: that's why the weather can't be accurately predicted more than like 2 days out. you'd have to know the movement and properties of every particle on earth and the way they'll interact with one another in order to do so). but what we do know is that they're individually not enough to account for the rapid change in the earth's climate. in fact, the only thing we know that could have caused this rapid warming is human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. the more gases in the atmosphere, the more heat is trapped on the planet. this is the greenhouse effect. venus is evidence of this. we know human emissions are doing this because of atmospheric measurements and ice core samples. CO2 emissions have only gone up since the industrial revolution:
    download-3.jpg
    and as such the earth has only gotten warmer.

    i watched more of the video earlier and i would write more but i'm tired, i'm nearing the word limit i think, and i dont watch to watch this maroon any longer. climate change denial is a disease and we're all going to die because of it.

    edit: octo covered everything i didn't haha.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2019
  7. octo

    octo Forum Legend Official Author

    ok https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...ate/climate-change-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide

    the link really covers everything, but i will give you specific counterpoints from that and other sources in context with what the video says, since i am very nice.
    everything he says in the beginning of the video about their being three groups, etc. is mostly factual, however he neglects to mention that group 2 makes up ~3 percent of climate scientists, vs 97% who fall into group 1 [source]
    this gets us to the meat of the video: what the two groups agree on. i will respond to each of these individually to make sure i miss nothing :)
    • "the climate is always changing" - a true statement, but presented in a way that leads you to draw the false conclusion that "the climate is always changing in a way that is similar to the way it is changing now". the climate has always changed, yes, but we are currently experiencing an unprecedented rise in co2 levels and global temperature, as seen in this handy chart [source: this climate denier guy's post, lol][​IMG]
    now take a look at this chart and note the extreme rise we've been experiencing since the industrial revolution and large scale human burning of fossil fuels [sourced from my original link]. so yes, the climate is always changing, but in generally predictable patterns... that we are massively deviating from ever since humans began burning fossil fuels on a large scale (aka climate change).
    [​IMG]
    now, you might look at this and say, "well, octo, it could just be a massive coincidence, an instance of spurious correlation! what makes you think that co2 would directly influence the temperature?" well, you're in luck. the second thing that the video notes both groups agree on is...
    • "CO2 is a greenhouse gas without which life on earth is not possible, but adding it to the atmosphere should lead to some warming." - this is a funny statement because it leads with the idea that human life is not possible without co2 to get you to think that it can't be extremely harmful in too high a quantity. for a similar statement, consider "consumption of water is necessary for human life, but being completely immersed in it can lead to some trouble breathing" - yes, water is necessary for human life, but that doesn't mean you can't drown in it. not really too much to address or refute here beyond that, let's move on to the next point.
    • "Atmospheric levels of CO2 have been increasing since the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century." - this is factual and i have nothing to say about it, but on it's own it isn't an argument for or against climate change. i think it's just a lead in to point number 4, which is
    • "Over this period (the past two centuries), the global mean temperature has increased slightly and erratically by about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit or one degree Celsius; but only since the 1960’s have man’s greenhouse emissions been sufficient to play a role." - here is a graph showing temperature increase over that timespan [source]
    [​IMG]
    what you will notice is that there isn't all that much of an increase at all prior to the 1960s (aside from a spike interestingly correlated with ww2, one of the biggest booms in production, and thus co2 emissions, in history), and that after the 1960s, it takes off, increasing at a rapid pace relative to any prior increase. so yes, man's greenhouse emissions probably didn't have a huge effect prior to the 1960s, but they seem to be having a clear and obvious effect from then onward. (addendum: you may think to respond "what difference can one degree celcius make?", in which case you may want to read this) anyway, on to the final point
    • 'Given the complexity of climate, no confident prediction about future global mean temperature or its impact can be made. The IPCC acknowledged in its own 2007 report that “The long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”' - so i was curious about this claim and decided to check out some ipcc reports (interestingly enough i couldn't find that quote in the 2007 report, but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it was a paraphrase). what it comes down to is this: climate is incredibly complicated, and making (key word coming up) long term predictions is very difficult to do with any confidence. but what the ipcc does do is note that in the short term, certain effects are very likely (they italicize it like that too) to occur, with those trends likely continuing in the long term. if you're interested in what these effects may be, feel free to read a fairly brief, well-sourced report from 2014 which outlines causes and effects of climate change here.

    WELL I JUST RELOADED THE PAGE AND SAW Eryp ALREADY DID THIS BUT WHATVER LOL 2 POSTS ARE BETTER THAN 1!!! anyway yea climate change is real dude and stop watching prageru

    edit: oh wow the bulk of my analysis goes right after his leaves off so these are some perfect companion pieces, great job Eryp <3
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2019
  8. SavageCobra

    SavageCobra Active Member Official Author

    Lmao, we got two smart asses giving facts to people who are dumb enough to think global warming is not a threat.
     
  9. SavageCobra

    SavageCobra Active Member Official Author

    Does someone want to do anything to get in your house so that they can live a better life?
     
  10. SavageCobra

    SavageCobra Active Member Official Author

    wait then whats the wall for lmao
     
  11. FridayIX

    FridayIX Active Member

    Don't worry. The incoming House Democrats have a whole new agenda built around global warming. It's nothing new. Back in 2016, the Democrats built into their platform a call to investigate — and presumably prosecute — businesses that didn't buy into their extremist global warming beliefs. This is scary, Stalinist stuff.

    In the name of global warming, Americans may soon find their liberties to make a living and provide for their families curbed. It will come in the form of burdensome carbon taxes, tough restrictions on home building, and strict limits on car size and fuels.

    In short, it's not the climate that the warmists wish to control. It's you.

    So don't let these phony predictions of imminent climate doom made by government bureaucrats frighten you. Be angry instead.
    We got one dumb person who doesn't even understand the science enough to formulate their own argument, and that's you. Stand down.
     
    Logeton and Crypt like this.
  12. FridayIX

    FridayIX Active Member

    Some people do, yes. That''s what burglars are.
     
  13. FridayIX

    FridayIX Active Member

    To help border patrol
     
  14. ThatGuyYouSaw

    ThatGuyYouSaw Member Official Author

    I’m a big fan of Tom Cruuuuuuise - Rudy Mancuso and ThatGuyYouSaw
     
  15. SavageCobra

    SavageCobra Active Member Official Author

    Not really but burglars have other ways of getting in a house other than breaking the wall.
     
  16. Crypt

    Crypt Well-Known Member Elite Author Official Author

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    This is very accurate. I'm no climate change denier, the evidence is overwhelming that our abuse of certain resources has and will change our environment and climate drastically over time. (Time has proven it not as drastic as previous projections, it seems to be somewhat of a moving goalpost, but that's how science works as it corrects itself) However, it is also true that western governments exaggerate the issue in order to strip the population of wealth. In Canada, we have carbon tax. Our carbon emissions have dropped exactly 0 since the implementation of the tax, the initial result is that our driving cost increased and most drastically our home heating costs have increased as much as 40%, even though the projected number by our government, the number we were promised, was significantly lower. It extends really far too actually, from things like cab fares to simple oil changes cost more now as a result of this. Anything transportation related, and companies have simply charged delivery locations for the tax to offset the cost, which means an even further reach as it now costs more for items that have nothing to do with fuel but because they had to be delivered. Not exactly sure what the plan is to do with that money, or why the tax is even necessary, as getting a straight answer out of our government is literally impossible. (see: you will not find our PM says anything of substance, literally ever) Our government however does offer rebates, but depending on where you live, you may get none of it back. I've received a small amount back, but it sort of adds to the pointless nature of the tax to take it and then claim a bunch of it goes back to those who paid it...maybe just don't take it in the first place lmao

    I think at this point, if the science is accurate and climate change is as real a threat as they say, there really isn't anything we can do to stop it that we know of. Human populations are too high, resources will continue to be consumed at increasingly growing rates. If technology was advanced enough to provide us with a renewable & reliable source of energy that could replace our need for fossil fuels, we could combat some or maybe most of the emissions. However good luck getting particular parts of the world to comply. Where we are technologically...we would completely stifle certain economies that support millions and millions of people if we phased out fossil fuels, and those people consume products from other areas that would in turn suffer. It's an extremely complicated situation and no side has a proper idea on what to do. Taxing the crap out of people isn't going to help anyone, it merely hurts the individual. Ignoring the problem as if it isn't there doesn't work either. What can we do?

    If you could make a little more sense I could respond to the question.
     
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  17. SavageCobra

    SavageCobra Active Member Official Author

    Says the copy and paste headass Screenshot 2019-02-25 at 12.35.58 PM.png
     
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  18. SavageCobra

    SavageCobra Active Member Official Author

    Wait so your saying theirs gonna be a huge wall that cost millions of dollars just to help border patrol workers LMAO
     
  19. FridayIX

    FridayIX Active Member

    How else would they get in without breaking in besides going in through the main door? That's why we need a wall, to be that door.
     
    Resurrect likes this.
  20. FridayIX

    FridayIX Active Member

    It makes sure that everyone entering goes in through the main passageway. Then, we can isolate the threat and increase border security.
     
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